Wait-and-see mood of city of current Shanghai room is grumous, one, secondhand the room clinchs a deal the quantity is serious and atrophic. Does the reason where? It is this a few years compress ground root, compress money, price to rise, add breath impose tax, people sends a hope to be able to fall house price at macroscopical adjusting control reentry city; 2 it is the family that buys a house to borrowing money the 2nd times increase head pay increase interest, make demand of improvement of gradient of quite a few consumption is restrained; 3 it is pair of United States second the excessive apply colours to a drawing that borrows the crisis, make one part person produces illusion, afraid China also can produce in that way banking crisis to make house price falls greatly. So, want to wait a moment, have a look. In the final analysis, be not the market to lack requirement, consume psychology to be hit however, lack confidence to room city foreground. Recently, many friends often raise same question to me, can China happen second borrow the crisis? Can Shanghai house price fall greatly? Return now but in order to buy a house? Here I talk about individual view, consult for friends.
The United States is a nation that achieves high city to change already, agricultural population is occupied only 4% less than, housing puts a quantity to achieve door cover above equably, every average area 165 square metre, room city is long-term supply exceeds demand, basically be to put a quantity to trade. Enlarge demand to stimulate consumption, american finance orgnaization shifts business except normal room outside, still buy the room ability, low income family that mortgages without high grade asset again to extend to those lack high interest rate is low a Fu Changhai the loan buying a house of paragraph period, after mortgaging this kind the contract bales, appear on the market with bond form again financing, this cries sub borrow. When American economy progress is great, obtain employment is stable, house price is rising, loan can repay captital with interest smoothly, sub borrow also can get income of high specified number. Once macroscopical economy appears big question, unemployment rate leap, income acute is decreased, house price falls greatly, this kind of room is borrowed still do not go out, pawn drops greatly because of room city again excess supply and change hard show pay a debt in kind or by labour, financial orgnaization is faint cash expires bond, this happened second borrow the crisis.
Watch our country instead, the room lends interest rate not tall, examine and verify is very severe, head Fu San or 4 into, loan 67 into do not wish to be in debt for a long time by compatriots the ethical habit that consumes overpay accrual, also can pay off ahead of schedule mostly. The pawn that our room borrows is semifinished product room partly quite, the value after be being decorated at least appreciation two into, if buy before period room is entered, already began to repay captital with interest. Accordingly, to finish when be being decorated, the real value of pawn achieves a room to borrow the 1.5 times above of remaining sum at least. More what is more,the rather that at present the city changes China rate only 44% is control, urban housing market is begged be more than for, house price is long-term trend up steadily. Accordingly, once the room is borrowed,cannot repay captital with interest as scheduled, deal with through pawn change to also won't have now how old loss. Actually, china has not built a room to borrow up to now again market of bill of sale, our room is borrowed is a commercial bank obviously is high grade put borrow capital fund, change how possibly those who give an American form second borrow the crisis?
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